05.01.09: An Interesting Week in Sacramento
By David Walrath
Quiet Deadline Week
The past week was the deadline for passing fiscal bills from their first policy committees. If a bill with costs did not pass the first policy committee by today it is effectively dead. Normally this week is very busy in both the Senate Education Committee as well as the Assembly Education Committee. Not this year. It was the quietest deadline week in memory. While there were not as many money bills this year that does not mean next year will be as quiet. Assembly Education already has 40 two-year bills (bills that were not presented by their authors and will be presented next January), as well as the new bills that will be introduced next year. The Legislature’s hope for finding new money has not died.
Polls Released
Both the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) and the Field Poll released polling information this week. The PPIC poll focused on education. The results showed strong support for local control and the Proposition 98 minimum funding guarantee. The PPIC results also continued to show the voters distrust of state government and state elected officials (Governor and Legislature).
One of the most encouraging parts of the PPIC information was that a majority of likely voters still support local school bonds. However, that positive sign was countered by the finding that most voters do not support reducing the parcel tax vote from the current 2/3 requirement to a lower 55% for schools.
To read the summary and the complete poll please go to www.ppic.org.
The Field Poll released its results that showed Propositions 1A through 1E have an uphill battle to pass. The poll found voters to be very dissatisfied with the state government and elected officials. The poll found that if the Special Election propositions fail, the voters want to address the budget through spending cuts not tax increases. Democrats, Republicans and Independents all favor spending cuts. While they also want to protect schools from cuts, they do not appear willing to increase their taxes to protect schools.
For the summary and complete polling please go to www.field.com.
Both the PPIC and the field polls show a deep distrust of state government and an unwillingness to pay more taxes to continue existing services. While these results should not be surprising in the current economy, they do point out the risks for K-12 funding if the economy continues to decline and the Special Election propositions fail.
State Tax Revenues Continue Lower than Estimates
State tax revenues are approximately $2.5 billion below the revenues that were estimated in February. Every expectation is that state General Fund tax revenues will be $4 billion below estimates by the end of this (2008-09) fiscal year. With the continuing weakness for this year, next year revenues (the fiscal year starting this July 1st) probably will be reduced at the May Revision.
Schools should not assume the February state budget school funding will continue after the May Revision and the 2009-10 already passed budget is revisited and revised after the May Revision.
